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Las Cruces, New Mexico, 2006. Modified from illustrations by Wade Greenberg-Brand originally published inThe Teacher-Friendly Guide to the Earth Science of the SouthwesternUS. (Going forward, to avoid having to say northwestern Mexico, Arizona, and New Mexico over and over, Ill refer to this area as the monsoon region.). Nighttime winter temperatures in the desert can drop slightly below freezing. Photo by Center for Land Use Interpretation(Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 license, image resized). Photo by Santa Fe National Forest (National Interagency Fire Center on flickr, public domain). In 2020, Colorado ranked 7th in the nation for solar and wind power production, and Arizona and New Mexico ranked 12th and 13th, respectively. Ill be back on my regular beat in a couple of weeks with the September ENSO update. Global temperatures during the Cretaceous were very warm, as much as 10C (18F) above those at present. Since 1980, tree mortality in forests and woodlands across the Southwest has been higher and more extensive than at any time during the previous 90 years. July 1August 22, 2021 precipitation shown as a percent of the average July 1August 22, based on 19792020. A crinoid (Ibexocrinus lepton) from the Ordovician Kanosh Shale, Millard County, Utah. Winter will be warmer than normal, with above-normal precipitation. This may be due to the growth of solar energy, and voluntary commitments to reduce emissions made by large utility companies in the state. Percent of total annual precipitation occurring during JulySeptember, based on 19792020 using CPC Unified rain-gauge-based data. The Great Plains receive warm, moist air moving north from the Gulf of Mexico, and cold, dry air moving in from the Rocky Mountains and the northern U.S. Where these air masses meet, vigorous mixing causes thunderstorms. Zack and Mike mention that last year was an extremely dry monsoon, and this year is extremely wet. Image fromCretaceous Atlas of Ancient Life: Western Interior Seaway(Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 Internationallicense). The monsoon starts to develop in Mexico in June, and moves into the U.S. Southwest in July. Sun and storm in Weld County, in the Great Plains region of Colorado, 2015. Brown indicates where precipitation has been less than average; green is greater than average. The geography and climate of the southwestern U.S. east of the Rocky Mountains (in other words, in the Great Plains region in Colorado and New Mexico) are nearly ideal for their formation of thunderstorms and tornados, especially in the summer. Winds and waves shape the landscape, and rain showers support lush vegetation. By the end of the Permian, the southern ice sheets had disappeared. Photo by Stefan Klein (Wikimedia Commons, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license, image cropped and resized). Water, climate change, and sustainability in the Southwest. Wildfire risk map for the United States. Since then carbon dioxide emissions have been on a downward trend. The formation of precipitation also causes electrical charging of particles in the atmosphere, which in turn produces lightning. The Southwest Region climate in the United States is often associated with extremes. Photo by Kenneth Carpenter (Wikimedia Commons,Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license, image cropped and resized). Maps and data. Stages in the formation of a thunderstorm. Mesohippusmeasured up to 70 centimeters (2 feet) at shoulder height. On the other hand, there is not much agreement among projections for future change in the monsoon, except for regarding the timingmost projections suggest that, under continued climate change, the monsoon will start later in the summer and end later in the fall than it currently does (3). Did La Nia drench the Southwest United States in early winter 2022/23? Every part of the Southwest experienced higher average temperatures between 2000 and 2020 than the long-term average (1895-2020). Pacific storms lose most of their moisture as they pass over the Rocky Mountains, so much of the Southwest's winter precipitation falls as snow within the areas mountainous regions. In general, it is expected that high alpine glaciers in the Colorado Rockies will disappear as the climate continues to warm. Scientists first noted the seasonal rainfall patterns in the Southwest in the early 20th century, with the circulation pattern being understood as monsoonal by midcentury. A shift in plant type to those better adapted to drier conditions further suggests a change in climate during the Permian. There was likely little or no glacial ice anywhere on Earth, and temperatures were highest in lower latitudes. The impacts of the monsoon go beyond just rainfall amounts. Snowpack helps keep the ground and soil moist by covering it longer into the spring and summer, which delays the onset of the fire season and influences the prevalence and severity of wildfires. Photo by Archaeopoda (Wikimedia Commons,Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported license, image cropped, resized, and labeled). The southwestern desert is hot, with winter daytime temperatures in the lower 60s and average summer daytime temperatures between 105 and 115F. The map in Figure 1 shows how average annual temperatures in the Southwest from 2000 to 2020differed from the average over the entire period since widespread temperature records became available (18952020). Although much of the Southwest falls within the category of an arid zone, using a single label to describe the Southwest's climate would belie its diversity. Pangaea began to break up during the Jurassic, rifting apart into continents that would drift toward their modern-day positions. Winter- The winter in the Southwest region is mild, and hot. The white arrow is pointing to one of the leaflets of a compound leaf. During the Paleocene to Eocene, the Southwests climate was warm and wet, and large mammals roamed the forested landscape. temperatures from Washington and northern Oregon along the northern tier of the. The inset image is a shaded relief image that shows the edge of the crater on the Yucatn Peninsula with sinkholes in the rock surrounding it. Photoandreconstructionby National Park Service/NPS (public domain). Figure by climate.gov; data from CPC Unified data. This project was made possible in part by the Institute of Museum and Library Services (ARPML-250637-OMLS-22).The views, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed in this website do not necessarily represent those of the Institute of Museum and Library Services. Climate change in the Southwest The global rise in temperatures will affect different locations on earth in unique ways. Scale bar = 5 centimeters (about 2 inches). Across New Mexico, Arizona, and Utah, summer rains originate from moisture brought into the area from the Gulf of Mexico. Sand dunes started to become widespread. The warming conditions alone can be impactful, drying out soils quicker during breaks in monsoon rainfall, for example (2). With the start of the Paleozoic era, climates across the world were warm, and North America was located in the low and warmer latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. Streamflow totals for the decade of 2001-2010 in the Great Basin, Rio Grande, and Colorado River were between 5% and 37% lower than their 20. The large ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere did not extend into the Southwest, even at their maximum area. (3) There is a whole lot of interesting detail in this reportabout everything, but about the North American Monsoon specifically. The Southwest is also definable, to an extent, by environmental conditions - primarily aridity. Record high temperatures for the Southwest range from 53C (128F) in Arizona to 47C (117F) in Utah, while record low temperatures range from 56C (69F) in Utah to 40C (40F) in Arizona. Famous sheriffs like Wyatt Earp and outlaws like Billy the . Summer rains fall almost entirely during brief but intense thunderstorms on the Great Plains, although the occasional hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico may push heavier precipitation inland. However, the Southwest is located between the mid-latitude and subtropical atmospheric circulation regimes, and this positioning relative to shifts in these . The final ingredient is wind. The Southwest contributes significantly to climate change. Photo by Jeffrey Beall (Wikimedia Commons,Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license, image resized). Green areas mean drought is likely to end. The event devastated the Southwest, shifting a densely forested landscape to one primarily covered with fast-growing herbs and ferns. Recent warming within the Southwest has been among the most rapid in the United States, and models predict that the area's climate will continue to warm. Climate models project a significant increase in the number of days over 95F per year across the Southeast. The first letter of each zone in the key indicates its major classification. Allmon, W. D., T. A. Smrecak, and R. M. Ross. Natural variability, changes in irrigation practices, and other diversions of water for human use can influence certain drought-related measurements. Seems likely that conditions in the GM may influence annual variations in the monsoon. Thanks thats a big pool of warm water larger than the gulf of California and warmer than the greater Pacific Ocean. Data source: NOAA, 20214Web update: April2021, Key Points | Background | About the Data | Technical Documentation. NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). | View Google Privacy Policy. Rugose corals or horn corals (Turbophyllum) from the Mississippian Great Blue Limestone, Cache Canyon, northern Utah, near the border between the Basin and Range and Rocky Mountain physiographic provinces. For many of us, the word monsoon conjures images of heavy rain lasting for months. The average amount of precipitation for the United States is 85.6 centimeters (33.7 inches). Zack and Mike described this years monsoon for southern Arizona as generational, meaning once in a generation. The climate was drier than that of the Carboniferous, and mudflats with salt and gypsum formed across the Southwestern states. Credits for individual images are given in figure captions. In New Mexico, for example, average annual precipitation ranges from less than 25 centimeters (10 inches) within the Great Plains and Basin and Range regions to more than 50 centimeters (20 inches) at the higher elevations to the northwest. Inset image from the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PIA03397). Eventually, a sheet of sea ice formed over the Arctic, and ice sheets spread over northern Asia, Europe, and North America, signaling the start of the most recent ice age. The Southwest's overall average high temperature of 19.2C (66.6F) and average low of 2.8C (37.0F) are indicative of a varied climate, one much less uniform than that found in many other parts of the United States. A blog about monitoring and forecasting El Nio, La Nia, and their impacts. Ive summarized their conclusions above, and include the quotes here, but I suggest you head over to the full science report if youre in the mood for some specifics. Climate at a glance. Photo by Gregory Smith (flickr, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic license, image cropped and resized). As in Arizona, the desert experiences a large range of temperature on a daily basis. These changes threaten economic productivity, public health, and the sustainability of Indigenous communities. A car with a windshield damaged by hailstones, Limon, Colorado, 2010. At the very end of the Cretaceous, the Gulf Coast experienced an enormous disruption when a large asteroid or bolide collided with Earth in what is now the northern Yucatn Peninsula in Mexico. Spring- The spring in the Southwest region is cool. Left imageandright imageby NickLongrich (Wikimedia Commons,Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license, images cropped and resized). Since the early 1900s, the Southwest has experienced wetter conditions during three main periods: the 1900s, 1940s, and 1980s. This map shows how the average air temperature from 2000 to 2020has differed from the long-term average (18952020). This movement of air in different directions is also the reason for the high incidence of powerful tornados that occur along "Tornado Alley" in the Great Plains, which affect eastern New Mexico and especially eastern Colorado. The Drought Monitor is a more recent and more detailed index based on several other indices (including Palmer), along with additional factors such as snow water content, groundwater levels, reservoir storage, pasture/range conditions, and other impacts. Another player is land-surface feedbackswetter soils provide more moisture to the air through evaporation. Water vapor animation for the afternoon of August 22, 2018 showing the monsoon circulation and thunderstorm formation (dark blue, green, dark red). Deer mice are the most important rodent carriers of hantavirus in the Southwest. (2019)Biology Letters15: 20190114(Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license, images cropped, reconfigured, resized, and relabeled). :https://earthathome.org/de/talk-about-climate/, Digital Encyclopedia of Earth Science: What is climate? The new dry-land isthmus blocked the warm ocean currents that had been flowing east-to-west from the Atlantic to the Pacific for more than 100 million years, diverting them into the Gulf of Mexico and ultimately into the western Atlantic Gulf Stream. Images by Lauren Dauphin, NASA Earth Observatory (used following NASA's image use policy). PRI's free resource to help you learn about the Earth and its history. Brown indicates areas where experts forecast drought will persist or worsen. While this will help with the ongoing drought in the southwest, in many regions the precipitation deficit has been building for a long time. Cattle ranches throughout the southwestern states rely on rain-fed grazing forage, making them extremely susceptible to climate change and drought. Right:Reconstruction of living animals. The better known of these wet seasons is the summer monsoon, which lasts from about mid-June to early September. Southwest Asia is a region of diverse climates and is generally divided into three main climate types: arid, semiarid, and temperate. Although on the western edge of the North American Monsoon, California plant geography indicates it makes a large contribution to the states southern flora. Shallow seas invaded the continent, ultimately covering the whole area until the late Carboniferous. SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS. North America's position near the equator kept its climate relatively warm. Thick salt deposits accumulated in the northwestern Four Corners area as the seas evaporated. Also extreme dryness which means days & weeks on end without rain. By the start of the Late Cretaceous, this inland sea, called the Western Interior Seaway, divided North America in two; the water was rich with mosasaurs, giant clams, and other marine life. Climate.gov image of original from Albuquerque, NM National Weather Service office. Drier days and higher temperatures will amplify evaporation, increasing the desertification of already arid areas and affecting natural ecosystems as well as increasing pressure on the water supply for agriculture and cities. There is some variability in the onset and demise of the monsoon. Also, these favourable weather conditions usually occur more. The American Southwest might evoke images of a hot, dry landscapea land of rock, canyons, and deserts baked by the sun. Four of western North America's major watersheds lie within its boundaries: the Colorado River basin, the Rio Grande basin, the Sacramento-San Joaquin watershed, and most of the Great Basin. Smog (haze caused by air pollution) over Salt Lake City, Utah, 2016. 2021. The result may be more destructive wildfires like the Calf Canyon-Hermit Peak wildfire in New Mexico. Precipitation forms. Drier conditions occurred through the 1920s/1930s, again in the 1950s, and since 1990, when the Southwest has seen some of the most persistent droughts on record (see Figure 3). Funnel clouds (developing tornadoes) over El Paso County, Colorado, March 29, 2019. Although there has so far been little regional change in the Southwests annual precipitation, the areas average precipitation is expected to decrease in the south and remain stable or increase in the north. Photo by James St. John (flickr,Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license, image cropped and resized). Right: As the vertical column of air turns over, with warm air at the top and cool air at the bottom, the storm begins to dissipate. Map of the Gulf of Mexico region before the closure of the Isthmus of Panama. It depends where you are! Figures 2 and 3 show two ways of measuring drought in the Southwest: the Drought Monitor and the Palmer Drought Severity Index. Here, the states varied topography leads to wide changes in climactic conditions that occur across short distances. While most of the evidence for cooling at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary comes from the deep sea, fossil mammals in the Rocky Mountains show clear evidence of a change from forests to grasslands, which is associated with global cooling. The Southwest, already the driest region in the United States, has become even drier since the mid-20th century, particularly on the hottest days . Cycads are a group of seed plants that look superficially similar to palms, but are not closely related to them and do not produce flowers. All rights reserved. Historic data from Livneh et al. New Mexico, Utah, and Colorado have also reduced their carbon dioxide emissions between 2008 and 2019. Burning those fossil fuels releases carbon into the atmosphere, which warms the Earth. The supercontinent was split by spreading along the mid-Atlantic ridge, initiating the formation of the Atlantic Ocean. Raucous summer thunderstorms characteristic of the monsoon season are spotty, while drizzly winter storms last longer and engulf large portions of the region. An increased frost-free season length also leads to increased water demands for agriculture and heat stress on plants. Changes include formatting and revisions to the text and images. Paleontological Research Institution Special Publication 38, Ithaca, NY, 200 pp. Well those extra storms probably just go somewhere else because of the change in wind pattern that the El Nino brings, eh? Sci. Average annual temperatures for the southwestern U.S. For the climate on early Earth prior to 541 million years ago, see the Introduction to Climate section. People in the Southwest are particularly dependent on surface water supplies like Lake Mead, which are vulnerable to evaporation. Explore how climate change is affecting the Southwest. Moving westward, Colorado's foothills and mountainous areas experience an overall cooler climate and higher levels of precipitation. Shelly sandstones in Utah represent vast tidal flats. Reconstruction created using basemap from the. Photo by James St. John (flickr, Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license). However, although climate change is predicted to enhance the intensity of severe weather, there is currently no way to calculate what effect climate change will have on the frequency of specific storm eventsfor example, we might see more powerful tornados, but we do not know if we will see more of them. Shiprock is part of the San Juan volcanic field and dates to the Oligocene (about 27 million years ago). Official websites use .gov . The March-April-May (MAM) 2023 temperature outlook favors below-normal. The monsoon's intensity waned by the early Jurassic, and the rivers and floodplains were replaced by even larger deserts. The risk of dangerous wildfires is currently very high in parts of the Southwest. Digital Encyclopedia of Earth Science: Why talk about climate change? Arizona's highest elevations receive an average of 65 to 76 centimeters (25 to 30 inches), with lower areas in the states southwestern portion averaging less than 8 centimeters (3 inches). JulyAugust rainfall anomaly averaged over North American Monsoon region for every year 19502019 (y-axis) versus Nio-3.4 index (x-axis). 3. A strong temperature difference at different heights creates instability. An ancient horse (Mesohippus),Eocene Florissant Fossil Beds, Teller County, Colorado. Although the mountain building that occurred during this event was mostly far to the east, the Southwest was influenced by both fluctuating sea levels and a few significant tectonic changes. Summer temperatures on the South Rim, at 7000 feet (2134 meters), are especially pleasant from 50 to about 85 F (10s to 20s C). This section covers the climate of the southwestern U.S. through the Phanerozoic, from about 541 million years ago to the recent. Check out Toms recent post on the drought in Arizona to understand more about how drought works in this region. For extended periods from 2002 to 2005 and from 2012 to2020, nearly the entire region was abnormally dry or even drier (see Figure 2). This circulation brings thunderstorms and rainfall to the monsoon region, providing much of their annual total precipitation. Carbon dioxide emissions in Arizona rose through the last three decades of the 20th century and reached a peak in 2008. Forecasts had all of this widespread flash flooding. By comparison, the average high and low temperatures for the entire United States are 17C (63F) and 5C (41F), respectively. During winter months, daytime temperatures may average 70 degrees F, with night temperatures often falling to freezing of slightly below in the lower desert valleys." Data from the Northeast Regional Climate Center Applied Climate Information System; 2079-2099 image shows the weighted mean of downscaled CMIP5 models in the LOCA dataset. 4. Cambrian trilobites from the Bright Angel Shale (Tonto Group), Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona. Submitted by rebecca.lindsey on Thu, 09/30/2021 - 10:14. Unless otherwise indicated, text and images on this website have Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International licenses. As a result of displacement due to continental rifting and seafloor spreading, sea level throughout the Cretaceous was much higher than it is today. The location of the Southwest and the topographical extremes across this area strongly influence its weather. Has hurricanes and tornadoes. The average annual temperature in most of the Southwest is predicted to rise 2.2 to 5.5C (4 to 10F) by 2100. Lower latitudes receive more heat from the sun over the course of a year; for each degree increase in latitude, there is approximately a 1C (2F) decrease in temperature. While changes in the growing season can have a positive effect on some crops (such as melons and sweet potatoes), altered flowering patterns due to more frost-free days can lead to early bud bursts, damaging perennial crops such as nuts and stone fruits. Weather conditions, particularly hot, dry weather and wind that spreads flames, contribute significantly to the ignition and growth of wildfires. A strong difference in air temperature at different heights creates instability; the warmer the air near the surface is relative to the air above it, the more potential (stored) energy the warm air has to move up, and the more potential for a storm. Earth 300 million years ago, during the end of the Carboniferous Period (Pennsylvanian). Fig. That's at least one part of a very big climate puzzle crossing that barrier that involves both the ocean and atmosphere. Since 800,000 years ago, an equilibrium has been reached between warming and cooling, with the ice caps growing and retreating primarily due to the influence of astronomical forces (i.e., the combined gravitational effects of the Earth, Sun, moon, and planets). Figure by climate.gov. Low annual precipitation, clear skies, and year-round warm climate over much of the Southwest are due in large part to a quasi-permanent subtropical high-pressure ridge over the region. Dry air is shown in orange. The reasons for this are complex and involve a combination factors. 94, 95, 96 Each assessment has consistently identified drought, water shortages, and loss of ecosystem integrity as major challenges that the Southwest confronts under climate change. By the late Carboniferous, North America had collided with Gondwana, leading to the formation of Pangaeaa supercontinent composed of nearly all the landmass on Earth. Summer- The summer in the Southwest region is hot and desert-like. (2015) . This page uses Google Analytics. On the other hand, New Mexico and northern Mexico are near or a bit below average.