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This one is tricky and we don't want to say Gaga is reductive, but we will say that her 2012 cameo on The Simpsons bears a striking resemblance to her Super Bowl half time show from a couple years back. Wise are those who prepare via an animated TV series. ", "Will enter Karnataka like China entered: Sanjay Raut on Belagavai border row", "We are with Marathi-speaking people in Belagavi: Shinde-Fadnavis govt", "BJP vs BJP: Border Dispute Between Karnataka, Maharashtra May Benefit JD(S)", "Karnataka-Maharashtra border dispute intensifies: 10 things to know", "Bengaluru: Forced to pay 50% commissions for projects, say corporation contractors", "Contractor who raised graft allegation against Karnataka minister K S Eshwarappa found dead", "40% commissions charge gathers steam, Karnataka BJP tries to fend off heat", "In Letter To PM, 13,000 Schools Accuse Karnataka Government Of Corruption", "Congress to make Bitcoin scandal an election issue in Karnataka", "Hacking gang at heart of Karnataka Bitcoin scandal tried to steal Rs 46 crore from state e-governance unit", "Congress accuses Karnataka govt of new Rs 200 crore scam", "Rahul Gandhi sets a target of 150 seats for Congress in Karnataka polls", "Experts in Karnataka link hijab, halal row to 2023 assembly polls", "Karnataka: As state BJP unit raises pitch over hijab-halal, talks of early elections", "Left Parties Come Together for Joint Conference in Bengaluru", "CPI: First list of 5 candidates released", "NCP in Karnataka to unite secular parties: Sharad Pawar", "Prithvi Reddy named AAP Karnataka president", "HDK meets Nitish Kumar in Delhi, looks at reviving Janata Parivar", "Dakshina Kannada: After Savarkar, banners of Nathuram Godse spark tension in Mangaluru", "JDS announces 93 candidates for Karnataka Assembly polls", "Bommai, Yediyurappa to launch 'Jana Sankalpa Yatra' on October 11", "For BJP, the focus in Karnataka: 'Love jihad' over governance", "BJP Karnataka chief Nalin Kateel love jihad remarks not helping party cause, feel state leaders", "How Bharat Jodo Yatra will impact Karnataka elections 2023", "Karnataka leg of Bharat Jodo Yatra begins from Gundlupet", "Bharat Jodo Yatra goes through BJP bastion", "BJP's Jana Sankalpa Yatra to resume on November 7, party plans ST convention in Ballari on November 20", "Bharat Jodo Yatra enters day 2 in Karnataka; FIR against Congress worker for holding PayCM poster", "Congress Bharat Jodo Yatra: Sonia Gandhi arrives in Mysore on Day 4 of Karnataka leg", "Rahul Gandhi Asked About Making Hindi 'National Language'. For purposes of this map, only states rated safe by at least six of them are shown in the darkest shade. These posters referred to the allegations that Bommai's BJP government took bribes in awarding public contracts and recruitments. For over three decades, the series has thrived with a dedicated audience invested in the hijinks of Homer, Marge, Bart, Lisa and Maggie. Assuming none wins an outright majority on Tuesday, the top two finishers in the race will advance to a runoff on April 4. Who those candidates turn out to be may offer a glimpse into the direction of urban politics in post-pandemic America. By Nate Silver Nov. 8, 2022, at. We may earn a commission from these links. Emily Ekans, the director of polling for the libertarian think-tank the Cato Institute, forecasted for Fox Newsthat the GOP will flip both chambers based on her assessment of the latest poll trends. In the now famous episode "Bart to the Future," Lisa Simpson is president, which is not terribly hard to fathom. For additional races, our model predictions and simulation results are below. Will 2022 Be A Good Year For Republicans? [1] The previous assembly elections were held in May 2018. In addition, as mentioned earlier, the margin of error for the Senate model is relatively large, leaving room for a range of possible outcomes from a GOP gain of two-to-three seats to a Democratic gain of four-to-five seats. Alan I. Abramowitz is the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory University and a senior columnist with Sabatos Crystal Ball. The House and Senate races have both moved more in Republican's favor in the publication's most recent predictions: Republicans, for example, are easily favored to win the House, with FiveThirtyEight rating their chances at 84 percent to Democrats 16 a lead that jumped around 10 points in the last few weeks of October. As of 5 p.m., a total of 444,731 ballots have been cast in Chicago's municipal elections, including voting at the polling places on Election Day, early voting, and voting by mail. [16] Eshwarappa had to resign as cabinet minister following the incident. alex: Im not sure if itll work, but there is a debate in political science right now about the extent to which race-based messaging reduces support for certain policy ideas. The Simpsons. One district Indiana's 2nd was vacant because the incumbent passed away. And in the House, my new projection is 231-236 seats.". Republicans are aiming to wrest away both chambers. 2022 House Elections (42) This content is imported from twitter. Has Predicted in 2022 and Beyond. [22][23], The BJP has focused its campaign around communal issues,[24] drawing stark criticism from the opposition Congress, which accused it of neglecting governance issues. While its hard to determine whether these bills will have some sort of partisan impact, its also very possible that young voters and voters of color have a bigger incentive to turn out to vote because of these bills. Heading into the 2022 elections, there were 68 open U.S. House seats. One plan introduced under the Lightfoot administration addresses the high vacancy rates for commercial space in the Loop, calling for older office buildings on LaSalle Street in the heart of Chicagos business district to be turned into apartments and condominiums, including affordable housing. Whether that's strange, unconscious manifestation or clairvoyance is up to you to decide, but it's impossible to look at The Simpsons and not feel a bit uneasy about how spot on the FOX show seems to be about what's to come. How should we factor that in when thinking about 2022? Subscriptions are available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. The generic ballot model uses two predictors the generic ballot along with the number of seats defended by the presidents party to generate forecasts of seat swing in midterm elections. UPDATED Nov. 8, 2022, at 12:22 AM U.S. senate Republicans are slightly favored to win the Senate The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the. So its possible Democrats could find gains in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, or, if things really go their way, perhaps a state that Biden only lost narrowly like Florida or North Carolina. Republicans still controlled both chambers, but the fact that Democrats didnt really lose ground was notable nonetheless. geoffrey.skelley: We shouldnt discount the role persuasion plays in midterm elections, either. And the Class III Senate map (the class of senators who will be up for election in 2022) is arguably the most favorable one for Democrats, in terms of presenting opportunities to flip Republican-held seats. A lead of that magnitude would predict a Republican gain of one seat in the House and a Democratic gain of two seats in the Senate giving Democrats a 221-214 seat majority in the House and a 52-48 seat majority in the Senate. The 2022 United States Senate elections were held on November 8, 2022, concurrently with the midterm elections at the federal, state and local level, including the 2022 U.S. House of Representatives elections. The Senate situation is far more uncertain because of the nature of the seats that are up. Well, The Simpsons predicted all of this in its 1995-1996 seasons. In addition to the retirements from the Council, other members are facing contentious reelection fights, including Ald. That is, maybe Republicans have a better chance of making inroads in the House than in the Senate? [37] Several state BJP leaders expressed unhappiness over the remarks and felt that it would not help the party cause. For many voters, it may be coming too late. ", "Explained | What is the Karnataka voter data theft case? In other words, theyre still a swing demographic, not part of the Democratic base (yet). But George W. Bush was very popular in 2002 in the aftermath of 9/11: According to a retrospective FiveThirtyEight average of polls at the time, he had a 62 percent approval rating and 29 percent disapproval rating on Election Day 2002. nrakich: Some analysts point to the fact that college-educated white voters, who are pretty reliable midterm voters, used to vote Republican but now vote Democratic. Oct. 28, 2022, at 9:52 AM ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER With less than two weeks until Election Day, Republicans now have a 48 percent chance of taking the Senate, according to. The longstanding conventional wisdom is that midterm elections generally go well for the party thats not in the White House. Any sense of what to expect this year? Two decades before it came true, the series predicted that Disney would buy Fox. I think theres a tendency to use campaign strategies to explain just how something came to pass when larger national forces like the presidents standing and which seats are up (for the Senate at least) probably explain most of what happened. While there is a clear trend of the presidents party losing seats in the House, the pattern isnt as consistent for the Senate. And there will be "at least one surprising upset in [the governor] races. That said, I think Democrats might find some success campaigning on Bidens accomplishments from his first 100 days: the vaccine rollout and the coronavirus stimulus funding, specifically. Or just had a really erroneous last minute text switch thanks to Apple's "autocorrect" function? FiveThirtyEights polling averages are calculated retroactively for years prior to 2018. sarah: What about midterm turnout more broadly? He cites Trump's 2016 win against Hillary Clinton despite losing the popular vote, and polls that had indicated his defeat "seemed all but assured. geoffrey.skelley: As the COVID-19 pandemic recedes, Biden and his team are clearly banking on an economic revival that will buoy his ratings and Democratic fortunes in the midterm. "Republicans are likely to gain upward of 15 House seats, and they have a good shot of taking full control of Congress." ", "South First poll predicts Congress will emerge as single-largest party in tight fight in Karnataka", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2023_Karnataka_Legislative_Assembly_election&oldid=1142846958, This page was last edited on 4 March 2023, at 18:08. Thats why the mayors election in Chicago on Tuesday is about more than Chicago. Latest Election 2022 Polls Battle for Senate Battle for House Governors 2020 Midterm Match-Ups Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight's editor-in-chief, played devil's advocate by simulating a conversation between himself and his alter-egos, "Nathan Redd" and "Nathaniel Bleu." Well talk about that more in a minute. sarah: Thats a good point. with a number of elections underway in 2021, the cost and magnitude of President Bidens policy plans, save Democrats from a midterm shellacking., presidential approval ratings are stuck in a very narrow band, when the presidents party didnt do that poorly. In 2022, eight National Democratic Alliance (NDA) members, comprising five Bharatiya Janata Party and three Indigenous People's Front of Tripura (IPFT) MLAs, resigned and left BJP. Out of these eight, four joined TIPRA, three joined Congress, and one joined the Trinamool Congress. The line in each graph is the regression line generated by the equations in Table 2. "The party appears to be highly competitive in the key Senate races, like Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. His Reply", https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/karnataka-congress-releases-10-point-manifesto-for-coastal-areas-ahead-of-2023-assembly-polls-2325183-2023-01-23, "JD(S) to launch Pancharatna Yatra today", "2023 Karnataka Elections: Will JD(S)' Outreach Make it Kingmaker Once Again? But this is a bit on the nose. He added: "The American public prioritizes inflation and affordability over Jan. 6. sarah (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): Were still more than a year away from the 2022 midterm elections, which means it will be a while before we should take those general election polls too seriously. In all, 12 members of the City Council will not be seeking reelection, with several more defending seats that theyve only recently been appointed to. Americas cities increasingly face similar problems, particularly worries about crime and hangovers from the pandemic. Oh, whoops. Mayoral elections in Chicago are officially nonpartisan, but none of the nine candidates on the ballot on Tuesday is a Republican. One additional factor that is not included in the House forecast is the impact of redistricting, which will take place this cycle based on the results of the 2020 census. alex: Nathaniel has done a great job writing about this, but I think the new voting laws (both the restrictive ones and the expansive ones) should be a factor we examine, too. Along with Esquire, his work has appeared in NYLON, Vulture, and USA Today. This article possibly contains unsourced predictions, speculative . That is really odd.". [47], A 10-point platform for the coastal region has been released by the Karnataka Congress in advance of the Assembly elections. The presidents party often loses ground in midterms, but the magnitude of those losses varies greatly depending on the national political environment and the seats held by each party prior to the election. Comments about this content should be directed to the author or syndicate. Just like in the mayoral election, if no candidate receives a majority of the votes in the Feb. 28 election, meaning 50% plus one additional vote, then the top two vote-getters would advance to a runoff, which will be held on April 4. But if I had to handicap the midterms now, today, I would have to say the House is Likely Republican and the Senate is Lean Republican.. With that being said, the GOPs strategies could still gin up turnout among its base, in particular, but its hard to separate that from general dissatisfaction with Biden. According to The Economist, Democrats win the majority in the Senate in 81 out of 100 simulations. That would put them right in line with the special-election results so far, which show a more neutral environment. Bleu, meanwhile, harkened back to the Democrats' performance in special elections over the summer as a bright light in their favor. Over the past several weeks, Democrats and Republicans have crisscrossed their electoral districts and regions, makingclosing campaign arguments to drum up voter enthusiasm. He believes that Democrats are still putting up a fight for Senate control. It focuses on generating employment, luring capital, growing tourism, and fostering social peace. That said, the generic-ballot polls were spot on in 2018. In these states, Republicans have nominated relatively weak candidates who might underperform, even in a favorable national political environment. Ald. [45], In September 2022, the Congress set up QR codes of "PayCM" in many parts of Bengaluru. After the election, coalition of Janata Dal (Secular) and Indian National Congress formed the state government, with H. D. Kumaraswamy becoming Chief Minister. Richard Branson's trip to space is the latest in a long line of Simpsons predictions. Based on results from recent elections, I set the range of possible generic ballot results for next fall as +10 Democratic to -10 Democratic (or +10 Republican). Heading into 2022, that bias may only grow, considering that Republicans will draw new congressional lines in a lot more states than Democrats. CHICAGO Mayor Lori Lightfoot faces eight challengers in a fierce mayoral election and risks being ousted from City Hall after one term. Every product was carefully curated by an Esquire editor. You may be able to find the same content in another format, or you may be able to find more information, at their web site. [43] In the yatra, Rahul Gandhi stressed issues such as the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic by the state BJP government[44] and the importance of regional languages, especially Kannada. [49] A road campaign across the Old Mysore region, it has been witnessing a huge turnout in the southern region of the state. Most notably, we seem to keep missing the end of the world, may it come soon and swiftly. Tripura held the Legislative Assembly elections on February 16, 2023, to elect all 60 members of the Legislative Assembly. According to a recent report by the Democratic data firm Catalist, college-educated white voters only voted for Biden 54 percent to 46 percent (based on the two-party vote). Slack Chat (290) . The previous assembly elections were held in February 2018, and after the election, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) formed the state government, with Biplab Kumar Deb becoming the Chief Minister. Catalists 2018 midterm analysis speaking of them noted that Democrats won over some voters in 2018 who leaned Republican in 2016. In fact, a recent study from Yale political scientists Micah English and Josh Kalla found that highlighting the benefits of progressive policies for racial minorities actually decreases support for them overall, and this was especially true for white respondents. Tensions concerning the Belagavi border dispute intensified in early December 2022 as a delegation of Maharashtra politicians proposed to travel to Belagavi district to demand the merger of some . Kumaraswamy sworn in as chief minister", "Congress-JD(S) coalition government loses trust vote in Karnataka", "Yediyurappa takes oath as Karnataka CM for fourth time, to face crucial floor test on Monday", "Karnataka CM B.S. Midterms (37) And when Oregon and New York break for the @GOP on crime, something big is about to happen. In the 2010 election cycle (which, of course, was a great one for Republicans), Republicans didnt take the lead in generic-ballot polling until December 2009. sarah: But uh the generic ballot polls were really off in 2020.